The reports of Apple’s death in China are greatly exaggerated

It’s times like these when the Macalope remembers the sage advice of his spiritual guru who once said, “Don’t trust people. They’ll only hurt you.”

In retrospect the Macalope should probably not have picked Cormac McCarthy as a spiritual guru. But we all make mistakes.

Anyway, cast your memory back to a time long, long ago… May of this year. (That “pretend a time not that long ago was really a long time ago” gag used to land a lot better before [gestures to everything].) Back in May we were being sagely warned that Apple would experience a “large unexpected slowdown in China”. Even after that didn’t happen, some of the same people were saying the same thing in July.

SUSPECT BIG TROUBLE FOR APPLE IN CHINA is an evergreen topic.

The problem is, reality would like to have a talk with that topic’s manager.

According to Counterpoint Research, Apple was China’s largest smartphone brand last month. Now, these crowns come and go so Apple shouldn’t let it go to its head. (Wait, where else do crowns go?) The point is, China is hardly a big problem for the company right now and it doesn’t look like it’s going to be very soon, either, as the outlook for iPhone sales in China seems pretty good.

“Apple seen selling 40M iPhones during holidays despite chip shortages”

“We estimate in China alone there are roughly 15 million iPhone 13 upgrades for the December quarter as this key region remains a major source of strength for Apple heading into 2022 and beyond,” [Wedbush analyst Dan] Ives said.

You may be wondering if 15 million iPhones is a lot of iPhones. Yes, it’s a lot of iPhones.

Well, maybe you’d like a second opinion, just like when you had that mole on your back you were concerned was cancerous (it turned out it was a Raisinet that fell down the back of your shirt when you were throwing them up in the air and trying to catch them in your mouth). Okay, we can do that.

“Apple said seeing strong iPhone sales gains in China”

…J.P. Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee said that data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology shows that Apple shipped 10.8 million iPhone in the country during October. Chatterjee noted that Apple has historically averaged 6.1 million shipments a month in China, and that October’s figures are the highest for a month in the country since November 2014.

You all remember 2014. That was a couple of years before Apple went out of business for having a few quarters where iPhone sales fell. And the company was never heard from again. Sad.

Well, not exactly. But that’s what should have happened according to some.

If Apple averages 6.1 million shipments in China a month and shipped 10.8 million in October, that’s what mathematicians would call “above average.” And it’s above average by an amount that someone could actually calculate and go “Whoa! That is above average!” If someone were so inclined.

The Macalope isn’t, so it would have to be someone else.

Look, invest in Apple, don’t invest in Apple, it doesn’t matter to the horny one. He quit playing the ponies years ago. Just don’t pretend flailing your arms about tiny month to month blips in iPhone sales like a used car lot air dancer is “analysis.”